Pending Home Sales Fell 5.5% in December 2024

Pending Home Sales Fell 5.5% in December 2024

National Association of REALTORS®, article by Lauren Cozzi | January 30, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

• Pending home sales in December decreased 5.5%.

• Compared to one month ago, pending sales declined in all four U.S. regions, with the West recording the largest drop.

• Year-over-year, contract signings retreated in all four U.S. regions, with the Midwest showing the biggest reduction.

WASHINGTON (January 30, 2025) – Pending home sales retracted 5.5% in December – following four consecutive months of increases – according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four U.S. regions experienced month-over-month losses in transactions, with the most significant fall in the West. Year-over-year, contract signings reduced in all four U.S. regions, with the Midwest seeing the largest decrease.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – slid 5.5% to 74.2 in December. Year-over-year, pending transactions declined 5.0%. Last year’s cyclical low point occurred in July 2024 at 70.2. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

“After four straight months of gains in contract signings, one step back is not welcome news, but it is not entirely surprising,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Economic data never moves in a straight line. High mortgage rates have not significantly dented housing demand due to greater numbers of cash transactions.”

Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown

The Northeast PHSI fell 8.1% from last month to 62.3, down 1.3% from December 2023. The Midwest index shrunk 4.9% to 74.3 in December, down 6.9% from the previous year.

The South PHSI slipped 2.7% to 90.6 in December, down 5.1% from a year ago. The West index tumbled by 10.3% from the prior month to 57.7, down 5.1% from December 2023.

“Contract activity fell more sharply in the high-priced regions of the Northeast and West, where elevated mortgage rates have appreciably cut affordability,” said Yun. “Job gains tend to have greater impact in more affordable regions. It is unclear if heavier-than-usual winter precipitation impacted the timing of purchases.”

About the National Association of REALTORS®

As America’s largest trade association, the National Association of REALTORS® is involved in all aspects of residential and commercial real estate. The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.

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*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

Pending contracts are good early indicators of upcoming sales closings. However, the amount of time between pending contracts and completed sales is not identical for all home sales. Variations in the length of the process from pending contract to closed sale can be caused by issues such as buyer difficulties with obtaining mortgage financing, home inspection problems, or appraisal issues.

The index is based on a sample that covers about 40% of multiple listing service data each month. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.